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Climate Change: Giant Hail In The Forcast

By 31 July 2018

How Does Your Vehicle Feel About Global Warming?

Not Great.

What is the one thing that hail has in common with sports? How do we equate hailstone size with golf, baseball, softball, and even ping-pong? With sports ball-size and as North Texans know (especially Plano & McKinney), the bigger they are the harder they fall.

In fact, Texas just can’t seem to catch a break.

Texas Has A Hail Problem

A billion dollar hail storm. BILLION. That is what the catastrophe risk modelers Karen Clark & Company has reported for the June 6th, 2018 hail storm. Wow, right?

But wait…

In April  & March of 2016, Texas suffered through it’s most costly year of hail-related losses with a whopping $4 billion in damage to thousands of homes and automobiles primarily in the Dallas/Fort Worth area and San Antonio.

See what we mean?

In the past two years, Texas has ranked first in the U.S. for most hail damage, seen its costliest hailstorm in history and reports of hail continue to rise.

Which leads us to the million dollar question. Why?

Global Warming Might Be The Cause

Anthropogenic Climate Change

Anthropogenic Climate Change

According to a new study in the journal Nature Climate Change that looked at how projected climate conditions over the coming decades will affect hailstorms, including their frequency and the size of the stones produced.

The same study named anthropogenic climate change as the culprit.

So what is anthropogenic climate change?

Anthropogenic climate change means “human-made” and we are changing the climate through the production of these greenhouse gases. By examining the polar ice cores, scientists are convinced that human activity has increased the proportion of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, which has skyrocketed over the past few hundred years.

~ Sited from Global Greenhouse Warming

How Does ACC Effect Hail?

Nature.com article named, “The changing hail threat over North America in response to anthropogenic climate change” written by scientists Julian C. Brimelow, William R. Burrows & John M. Hanesiak say this,

“Anthropogenic climate change is anticipated to increase severe thunderstorm potential in North America, but the resulting changes in associated convective hazards are not well known. Here, using a novel modeling approach, we investigate the spatiotemporal changes in hail frequency and size between the present (1971–2000) and future (2041–2070). Although fewer hail days are expected over most areas in the future, an increase in the mean hail size is projected, with fewer small hail events and a shift toward a more frequent occurrence of larger hail. This leads to an anticipated increase in hail damage potential over most southern regions in spring, retreating to the higher latitudes (that is, north of 50° N) and the Rocky Mountains in the summer. In contrast, a dramatic decrease in hail frequency and damage potential is predicted over eastern and southeastern regions in spring and summer due to a significant increase in melting that mitigates gains in hail size from increased buoyancy.”

Summary:

  • Increased severe thunderstorms potential
  • Fewer hail days but increased hail diameter size
  • Increase in hail damage potential
  • Increased hail damage potential over southern regions (Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, and Texas) in spring
  • Increased hail damage potential over Rocky Mountains (Colorado) in summer